Monday, May 1, 2017

Sell in May? Staying Mechanical

 Nothing changes, the only constant is change, this time it's different, same shit different day-

Waking up in heavy contango land is always bittersweet as all your current short VIX positions look good, and everything you add on gets riskier and riskier.  The other side of the coin is when we get a vol spike, all the current positions are bad, and new positions have better pot odds.

It all evens out over time so especially on days with QQQ shooting up and daily articles screaming this is the top, I try my deep breathing exercises to stay mechanical.

So I closed one short VIX position and basically rolled to the 134/85 SVXY put spread for June 2.  The psychology here is pressing forward when everyone says how stupid this looks.  There is a mechanical advantage to contango.
My only solace is the last set of 130 short puts that I sold at an absolute local top which dove immediately and then finally came back past my break evens.
(From last week's garbage diary)

Even if you aren't doing pure short VIX/ SVXY, the takeaway is to be mechanical and have an absolute strategy. 
I saw some article/interview of these hedge fund manager "geniuses" whose "strategy" is to buy something "undervalued" (if you can even prove that exists) and hope it goes up.

Hope isn't a strategy, having a cash position to average down, and neutral/ upside profit is a strategy. 

So once again, bring on the down move- they have to beat us.  "Sell in May" has been disproved but who knows, we might get some action.

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