For Vixtermination I specifically made a flowchart:
Again, we have a similar setup of "Trump impeached vs trump in office" vs similar trades where the outcome is the same (dismissed in the Senate) but one exact trade blows up.
Well I fucked this one up again- I truly couldn't foresee them going this far on 0 evidence, running back the 3rd or 4th impeachment vote of the year and finally tipping the vending machine over. And for all the distressed liberals "HE REALLY SHOULD BE IMPEACHED AND DESTROYED" - there are infinite legitimate articles ie. executive order ban on bump stocks, executive order on hate speech-
He was sworn in on the oath to uphold and protect the constitution, and is making literal executive orders against the 1st and 2nd amendment - which no one is disputing/ hiding/obfuscating. Yet they went forward with the most vague impeachment articles that were thrown out by every legal scholar.
I'm getting back to short VIX as this ties into my broader market/elephant metaphor-
All these actions are interlinked with fake trade deals/ tax rate policy and thus liquidity.
If the closest actions thus far to removing Trump (the tax cuts/ 'we need lower rates/ bigger bubbles') president and trying to force in a Warren/Bernie 'we need to blow up wall street' candidate is good for SPY all time high, then what is the point? Its 100% liquidity (Fed 500b by Jan)
Is this what the permabears sound like? "there is no real market, no actual price discovery:
Is there no real government? If 1 party controlled house and senate, then what stops this process going to completion and invalidating the executive branch?
I guess I'm a little tense as my short VIX deltas have dwindled this year so I guess I'm not full capitalizing on the elephant path we are on. Even going into the year with the core thesis that nothing happens, its getting a little fucked even for me.
So do we just throw it all to the wind and go 100% all in SPY and just give it up? There is no political mechanism to stop the Fed pump so why even try to flatten deltas. This is not coming from a permabear that is all in short- I'm just trying to hit that theta and see if we can even stay inside a 1-2 std dev rip, not a vertical line rip.
My only concern is when the vertical line capitulation kicks in and the max short pain points get hit is when we get the reversal, but again its only temporary until the Fed can re pump. The most maddening thing about this though, is any "all in SPY" boglehead can't even articulate 1% of these back end processes that are key to their thesis, they just point to a straight vertical chart.
I'm still not quite there, I'll still be trudging through on the low delta, maxing theta plan. Who knows, maybe we might get a single year this decade inside 1 std dev.
Please tweet me, refute any of this...
