Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Short VIX'ing the Coronavirus

What a month- I've been in some 'low vol' calendar positions in SPX, moving strikes by the skin of my teeth, ultimately trying to stay in the game with 0 IV rank, and getting what I asked for with a ~25% UVXY pop.
I'm just waiting on the last day or so of theta and ideally getting out of these positions to move into a more midrange/short strangle vol setup.


I'm specifically waiting for the next ~1-2 weeks on the long term UVXY entry opportunities due to the timed 'incubation' period on the current Coronavirus.  If there was a wait and see moment for an underpriced tail risk, I think this could be a textbook case.  Again as I posted last time, the structural changes in UVXY might have permanently dropped the 1yr duration position value, so I would be more cautious in picking entries.   

With all that being said, and semi anticipating a further VIX spike going into this month, (and into March due to Fed/Treasury liquidity) this is one of the exact type of examples of the"life short VIX" thesis I muse about.  A chance to short a "world is ending" fear event, which these days is good for a ~16 VIX.  
  

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