Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Having a Core position

 One thing to reconcile when having constant short VIX positions on (at all VIX levels) is the obvious downside risk, and more specifically the average days to expiration on your positions.
A common TastyTrade/ OptionsAlpha/ etc strategy is to put positions on in high IV and to take them off at 50% max profit, or roll at 50% to take off that gamma risk I've discussed in earlier articles.

However, with short VIX as a core position, no matter what my portfolio average DTE is, I will have the same notional risk on at all times.  In this case, is there a difference between rolling out a month with 2 weeks left or just waiting until expiration and re adding the position? 

As long as you are keeping the core position, the early rolling/gamma protection doesn't help your long term returns because you will never be out during the draw down moment.  Furthermore, if the underlying is going to come back up anyway, there isn't much difference from being assigned , and then selling calls back up to the assigned strike and getting out of it.

If your core position is being a firefighter, your risk is always on, and you don't get to pick being off in advance of the week some big fire happens.  The 50% max profit/TastyTrade firefighter is basically taking on a contract position the week after a huge fire, whereas the career firefighter is there the whole time (and getting paid for it).  These last few weeks have been very quiet, we firefighters are just waiting to slide down that pole.

Obviously there is an ebb and flow to this, so for extreme VIX contraction it would make sense to roll early and bring in more premium if the current contract is mostly squeezed out- But in general, if we are just playing it for theta (at this low 10-11 VIX) then it might be best to just keep the position on and avoid doubling your commissions/fees in rolling.  With SVXY specifically, the illiquid long options make it rough to close your very profitable spread early. (I am shifting to a lot more VXX call spreads though, before you yell in protest)

Just some food for though when contemplating the full short VIX lifestyle, ok now back to the 9 handle!


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